Consumer confidence retreats as rate concerns re-emerge

According to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey, consumer sentiment declined 5.2% to 84.4 in September 2026, reversing most of the improvement recorded in August. Renewed cost-of-living pressures and expectations of further interest rate increases weighed on confidence, with higher fuel prices and stronger-than-expected July inflation adding to pressure on household finances.

The deterioration was particularly evident among mortgage holders, where overall sentiment fell 14%.  Nearly two-thirds of consumers now expect mortgage rates to increase over the next 12 months, up from less than 50% at the same time last year. Combined with recent Federal budget changes which have impacted house values, this suggests mortgage holders may become increasingly cautious around discretionary spending. More broadly, consumers remain risk averse, favouring bank deposits and paying down debt, which suggests households are prioritising financial resilience over discretionary purchases. Of concern is the reasons for the fall in sentiment in early September have somewhat worsened in recent weeks.

For retailers, the September result reinforces how difficult it is to generate sustained discretionary demand. Consumers continue to respond to value, but renewed pressure on household budgets means purchases are likely to become more deliberate and concentrated around major promotional periods. Heading into the key end-of-year trading period, retailers will likely need to place greater emphasis on value, targeted promotions and careful margin management as consumers become more selective in their spending decisions.

The latest ABS Household Spending Indicator increased 1.1% in July 2026, with growth recorded across all spending categories. However, the HSI predates the renewed deterioration in sentiment seen during September.

Source: Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index

According to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey, consumer sentiment declined 5.2% from 88.9 in August 2026 to 84.4 in September 2026, reversing much of the improvement recorded in August and returning sentiment towards the deeply pessimistic levels seen earlier in the year. The deterioration was driven by renewed cost-of-living and interest rate concerns. At the time of the survey in early September, fuel prices had risen above $2 per litre for the first time since April, while the stronger-than-expected July inflation result increased expectations of further RBA rate rises.

The component indices all declined in September:

• ‘family finances vs a year ago’ down 9.2% to 72.6;

• ‘family finances next 12 months’ down 3.8% to 94.5;

• ‘economic conditions next 12 months’ down 4.0% to 79.5;

• ‘economic conditions next 5 years’ down 4.5% to 85.8; and

• ‘time to buy a major household item’ down 4.8% to 89.3.

The largest decline was in consumers’ assessment of their current finances, with the ‘family finances vs a year ago’ sub-index falling 9.2% and giving back almost all of its August improvement. Higher fuel prices and renewed rate concerns appear to be weighing particularly heavily on homeowners and mortgage holders.

Notably for retailers, sentiment among consumers with a mortgage fell 14% in September, including an 18% decline in their assessment of whether now is a good time to buy a major household item. This suggests households with mortgages are becoming more cautious around discretionary purchases as borrowing cost concerns re-emerge. This is particularly relevant heading into the major end-of-year sales period, with mortgage holders appearing to tighten spending plans at a time when retailers will be focused on driving discretionary demand. More broadly, consumers remain risk averse, with 33% nominating bank deposits and 24% paying down debt as the ‘wisest place for savings’.

Housing sentiment also weakened, with the ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index falling 10.7% to 85.5 and reversing August’s improvement. Overall, the September result shows that the recent recovery in confidence remains fragile. Since the survey an interest rate rise has become more likely and a continued escalation in the Middle East has driven oil prices up further, suggesting sentiment has likely worsened in recent weeks.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

The latest ABS Household Spending Indicator (HSI) recorded a 1.1% increase (seasonally adjusted) in July 2026, following a 1.0% increase in June. Household spending was 7.0% higher than in July 2025, showing continued resilience in household spending despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures. The July result reflects broad-based growth across all spending categories, with both clothing and footwear and miscellaneous goods and services rebounding after declines in the previous month. While annual CPI moderated to 3.5% in the 12 months to July 2026, from 3.8% in June, the July inflation result was stronger than expected and remains above the RBA’s 2-3% target range. This has contributed to renewed expectations of further interest rate increases and remains a key consideration for the RBA over coming months.

Spending increased across all sub-categories in July:

• ‘Clothing and footwear’ up 1.6%

• ‘Recreation and culture’ up 1.5%

• ‘Miscellaneous goods and services’ up 1.3%

• ‘Health’ up 1.2%

• ‘Hotels, cafes and restaurants’ up 1.1%

• ‘Food’ up 1.0%

• ‘Alcoholic beverages and tobacco’ up 0.9%

• ‘Transport’ up 0.6%

• ‘Furnishings and household equipment’ up 0.4%

The monthly increase was led by ‘clothing and footwear’ (+1.6%), which rebounded following a decline in June. ‘Recreation and culture’ (+1.5%) and ‘miscellaneous goods and services’ (+1.3%) also recorded relatively strong growth, with recreation and culture spending supported by stronger spending on entertainment. CommBank Household Spending Insights for July 2026 highlighted increased spending associated with major sporting events such as the FIFA World Cup and cinema attendance linked to major film releases like The Odyssey.

Spending on both goods and services increased in July, rising by 0.7% and 1.5%, respectively. While services spending recorded stronger monthly growth, goods spending outperformed services spending over the longer-term, increasing 7.2% between July 2025 and July 2026 compared with 6.8% growth in services spending over the same period. The overall increase in the HSI reflected growth in both discretionary spending (+1.0%) and non-discretionary spending (+1.1%), highlighting continued strength across essential and non-essential expenditure categories.