Geopolitical Outlook: A heightened geopolitical backdrop
15 February 2024
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Geopolitics, strategic competition, and a raging battle between authoritarian and democratic ideals stand poised to impact the world in 2024 in ways potentially not seen since the Second World War. The significant number and scale of elections set to be held throughout the year, particularly the US presidential election, may also impact global stability.
China has partnered with Putin’s Russia in a ‘no limits partnership’, which is attracting support from other authoritarian regimes like Iran and polarising the world into competing blocs. With competition between these blocs growing, countries are increasingly viewing non-traditional security issues as central to their national security and resilience. Australia’s critical infrastructure and other economic levers are increasingly a target, via cyber attacks and the use of trusted insiders.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine grinds onwards and continues to pose a challenge to global stability, particularly as the West’s support for Ukraine appears to waiver. Hamas’ terrorist attack against Israel, the Israeli response, and Iran’s increasingly aggressive use of its ‘Triple H’ proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis), demonstrate how quickly the geopolitical environment can shift. Business and political leaders will be keeping a close eye on the potential global ramifications of regional issues including the devastating human cost, supply chain disruptions, increased cyber risks, and escalating levels of international sanctions. To identify, understand, and mitigate these risks, organisations will need to:
Actively map out their supply chains to understand their reliance on partnerships and procurement concentration, and clarify alternative strategies.
Identify their high-risk counterparties and undertake enhanced due diligence, as well as adopt investigative and counter insider risk capabilities.
Strengthen and actively test their cyber posture, including against advanced, persistent cyber threats.
Introduce trusted and timely feeds of synthesised intelligence that forewarn executives and boards of triggers for change.
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